gravypouch.com

Off to a rocky start

Fri, 30 Dec 2022 00:00:00 GMT

VChat.gg has been off to a good start. We are planning a launch around this Christmas. At the moment the MVP is very close to being completed. With just calendar and calling functions not implemented yet.

We have been pushing users to the site via Twitter. This has been pretty successful with around 5-10 link clicks a day. From there we aim to capture emails and creator information from potential users/creators. Things were going ok maybe a little slower then expected. We were sitting at less then a 10% conversion rate for our email forms which is kind of odd for the amount of traffic we were driving. Well it turns out that the form website we were using was not properly saving user responses and have bounced around 10 creator applications. This was extremely disheartening as those are the creators that are most engaged with our vision. Those are the leads we need to capture. Shit just sucks sometimes, oh well what are you going to do.

All this to say 3 simple things.

Make sure your not shipping broken tech.
Don’t be vulnerable to someone else’s mistakes.
Always test your shit.

Just some things to think about. I’m going to look back on that and cringe, but thats ok, everyone needs a first post.

Signing off.

The Year of clarity

Sat, 31 Dec 2022 00:00:00 GMT

The year of clarity.

I used to be a big fan of the cortex podcast https://www.relay.fm/cortex. Anyway I still like their stuff just fell out of it. Every year they do yearly themes something like “The year of cleaning”. These are general themes and not necessarily goals. And I like that. Its more low pressure and more achievable. As to the example before. You reflect of your year and ask yourself. Was this year more clean? If it was then you accomplished that theme.

This year is going to be the year of clarity. Finding this I care about / have to do and cutting everything else out. Just focus on the important things. Not a crazy goal I know. But something I’ve been thinking about for the past couple months

Im Just getting used to using MD. So sorry for the boringness of this post. Just wanted to get my thoughts out there.

See you on the other side!

'I Dont want to login to your website' - TheVerge

Sun, 05 Mar 2023 00:00:00 GMT

Here is a really cool article I read from the verge (summarizes my thoughts on the topic):

Post from the Verge

Signing off.

Why TikTok Should be banned

Mon, 01 May 2023 00:00:00 GMT

TLDR

TikTok and other Chinese Owned Social media companies not only pose a threat to our nation’s national security but also set a scary precedent for Chinese dominance of the internet at large. Allowing hostile foreign governments to play a role in the information age opens the United States up to a new attack vector not seen before in modern history. An attack of misinformation and control. With apps such as TikTok growing in popularity (especially with younger demographics), their data, and more importantly their flow of information is being more and more controlled by a government that does not have their best interests in mind.

TikTok and the War for Information

TikTok and other Chinese Owned Social media companies not only pose a threat to our nation’s national security but also set a scary precedent for Chinese dominance of the internet at large. Chinese owned tech companies like TikTok pose a threat to western democracy, and the freedom of our digital world. China functions as a sudo capitalist nation. Where most functions of a capitalistic market are allowed to take place as long as they don’t interfere or come into competition with the power of the state. This being so, China mandates that companies over a certain market cap must instate a member of the Chinese socialist party to their board of directors (Wei, 2023). The sway that this member holds is immense and what they say goes. Any opposition to them is met with fast and swift action by the Chinese government. This in practice gives the Chinese government effective control of the largest corporations within its borders (Wei, 2023). And it’s this practice that has the rest of the western world worried about the potential to do harm to an app like TikTok has. With effective control of TikTok, China can weaponize it and use it as a platform to spread misinformation and sow the seeds of doubt in our democracy into the American people’s mind.

The rise of TikTok has been historic. With it becoming one of the most popular social media platforms within just a short few years. Especially among younger demographics, with it being the second most popular social media website among teens (13-17) according to the Pew Research Center. (Atske, 2022)

App downloads are not the only thing rising for this up-and-coming social media giant, as controversy surrounding the app has also followed suit. Unlike other domestic social media companies, TikTok is owned by the Chinese based company ByteDance. The ownership of TikTok by ByteDance has fueled concerns over data privacy, national security, and content regulation. As a Chinese company ByteDance is subject to the Chinese government’s jurisdiction and policies. Which have historically not been the best for human rights. This connection to an adversarial government has led to growing unease among users, lawmakers, and security experts.

There are only two solutions to this growing issue, ban the App and others like it, or regulate it to the point where it can be guaranteed there isn’t any interference from the Chinese government. Apps and other websites collecting large swaths of user data is not new, companies like Facebook, Google, and Twitter have been catching flack for this since their inception. What is new is who controls this data. With this data companies can learn all about you as a user, what your preferences are. Where you go in the day. Who you talk to. And much more, these companies are doing this to serve ads that are most relevant to your daily life, purely for financial gain. Now imagine if all this data being collected was also being used by a foreign government that was actively using this data to gain intelligence into the American psyche. From this they can learn about millions of American’s daily lives, preferences, fears, desires and who they talk to. There are imaginable strategic uses for data like this. This is why an app like TikTok should be banned. It would be too easy for the Chinese government to shift the algorithm to show the most vulnerable users ill-informed content which could lead to civil unrest and at worse violence. Just imagine if they targeted mentally unstable individuals and served them content on how to build and use firearms, now that may be an extreme example but it brings my point across. No one could stop them and no one can tell that this would be happening inside the app, because the app and the algorithm itself is a black box. This is just one VERY direct example on how all this data and information can be used against the United States.

It is impossible to separate TikTok from the country in which it originates. No matter what ByteDance wants us to believe. The Chinese government has already stated that they are unwilling to decouple the app and sell it off to a domestic company (Che, 2023). This means the best way to solve this issue is to simply ban the app outwrite. We don’t negotiate with terrorists and China should not be an exception. They do not allow any of our largest social media companies to operate within their country, No Facebook, No Youtube, No Google, all have been banned within China’s borders. Why should we let them do the same to us? Information is power and as more and more citizens use TikTok on a daily basis more of their information flow can be controlled and manipulated by a foreign government, I have had a direct experience with misinformation on the platform. This is purely anecdotal and I wish I would have documented it at the time it happened. But I was served a very strange video by the algorithm that stated China had the most female billionaires in the world. I instantly knew this wasn’t true so I researched it. And it turns out it’s not remotely true. The United States has nearly double the amount (Peterson-Withorn, 2023). The only source that could back up this claim was a Chinese owned newspaper. This in my eyes shows the danger that mis-information can cause. Was it a coincidence that I was shown that video? Maybe, but the fact that it tried to paint China in a good light as an economic leader has me highly suspicious. From this experience I have been extremely skeptical of the platform and its true intentions. Think of all the damage a platform like Fox News has done when it comes to mis-information (Coster, 2023), now times that by 10 and that is the threat the TikTok is to the American public. Fox News is purely motivated by profit and viewership, The Chinese government is not so transparent with their intentions. This is why there needs to be swift action and banned immediately.

Some others have offered a compromise on this issue. It was tried and tribulated several times during the Trump administration to spin off TikTok to a domestic company (Allyn, 2020). Specifically to Oracle and Walmart. This deal fell apart for a myriad of issues, not the least to say that the Chinese government won’t permit this entity to be sold (Che, 2023). It is purely to valuable a tool for them. This course of action would be great. All parties could walk away happy. ByteDance could walk with an upwards of a couple billion dollars that they very rightfully deserve, they have built a fantastic, wonderful, and additive product. That is what has led it to being so successful in the first place. But the elephant in the room is China. They stand in the way of this solution coming to fruition. In a perfect world this deal would go through and TikTok could live on to be another highly successful social media company. But one party in this transaction has made it very clear that this will not happen.

References

Allyn, B. (2020, December 7). U. S. Judge halts trump’s tiktok ban, the 2nd court to fully block the action. NPR. https://www.npr.org/2020/12/07/944039053/u-s-judge-halts-trumps-tiktok-ban-the-2nd-court-to-fully-block-the-action

Atske, S. (2022, August 10). Teens, social media and technology 2022. Pew Research Center: Internet, Science & Tech. https://www.pewresearch.org/internet/2022/08/10/teens-social-media-and-technology-2022/

Che, C. (2023, March 23). China says it will ‘firmly oppose’ forced sale of tiktok. The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/23/business/china-forced-sale-tiktok.html

Coster, H. (2023, April 25). Tucker Carlson leaves Fox News days after Dominion lawsuit settlement. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/fox-news-media-tucker-carlson-part-ways-2023-04-24/

De Leyn, T., De Wolf, R., Vanden Abeele, M., & De Marez, L. (2022). In-between child’s play and teenage pop culture: Tweens, TikTok & privacy. Journal of Youth Studies, 25(8), 1108-1125.

Kaye, D. B. V., Chen, X., & Zeng, J. (2021). The co-evolution of two Chinese mobile short video apps: Parallel platformization of Douyin and TikTok. Mobile Media & Communication, 9(2), 229-253.

Maheshwari, S., & Holpuch, A. (2023, April 12). Why countries are trying to ban tiktok. The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/article/tiktok-ban.html

Peterson-Withorn, C. (n.d.). Forbes’ 37th annual world’s billionaires list: Facts and figures 2023. Forbes. Retrieved April 29, 2023, from https://www.forbes.com/sites/chasewithorn/2023/04/04/forbes-37th-annual-worlds-billionaires-list-facts-and-figures-2023/

Roush, T. (n.d.). Montana passes tiktok ban: Here’s why it’s probably unenforceable. Forbes. Retrieved April 15, 2023, from https://www.forbes.com/sites/tylerroush/2023/04/15/montana-bans-tiktok-heres-why-its-probably-unenforceable/

Silver, L., & Clancy, L. (n.d.). By more than two-to-one, Americans support U.S. government banning TikTok. Pew Research Center. Retrieved March 31, 2023, from https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2023/03/31/by-a-more-than-two-to-one-margin-americans-support-us-government-banning-tiktok/

Wei, L. (2023, March 8). China’s new way to control its biggest companies: Golden shares. Wall Street Journal. https://www.wsj.com/articles/xi-jinpings-subtle-strategy-to-control-chinas-biggest-companies-ad001a63

The Cigarette Test

Fri, 11 Aug 2023 00:00:00 GMT

Can your product be used 23 times a day?

Create an engaging enough content loop that your users won’t ever want to put your product down

Larry page once said something that others have redistributed: “Is this something you will use once or twice a day, and does it make your life better?” An idea that stands out in my mind daily when trying to build products.

A simple yet powerful analogy in its own right, I don’t think its pushing the logical conclusion far enough. So that being said, I would like to introduce the next step in this “TEST”.

The Cigarette Test:

Is your product addictive enough to use 23 times a day? Some products that come to mind when I think of this:

TikTok
YouTube
Facebook
Instagram

Apps and products that’s goal is to take a two hour chunk from your existence, they sustain you with just enough engagement to get you coming back. Something like WeChat might also fall into this, but I don’t have enough experience with that to say for sure.

Either way this is a good rule of thumb to try to build an engaging, (maybe addictive) experience for users.

-Till the next time, GP

Story #6

Sun, 17 Nov 2024 00:00:00 GMT

At a 24-hour workspace void of any other person, He sits at his table typing on his keyboard, code flooding his screen.

A 21-year-old living in St. Petersburg, Florida, began his experience with coding at age 11 and has simultaneously pursued it while attending school until this October when he decided to drop out to pursue programming full-time. In August, He secured a job at an app start-up called App, a calorie-tracking app.

He commented on his decision to leave college, “Things are moving too fast, and college moves too slow. There are no rules right now; they are being written as we speak. T o learn what I’m learning right now, it will take colleges 5 years to catch up.” Just a month before dropping out of school at his community college, he was accepted to transfer to Florida State University to complete its computer science degree. He was planning to move to Tallahassee in January, but after rescinding his application, he instead booked a three-month trip to Seoul, South Korea, to explore its thriving tech scene and gain new inspiration for his work.

When discussing his life motivators, he stated, “My main driving force would be to do the most interesting thing possible, something that keeps me entertained, and I feel like what I do now does that.”

He also places a high value on money. “My goal would be to make as much money as possible. I think money is an almost perfect measure of things [success]. Good art makes money, bad art also makes money, but there’s very few pieces of good art that don’t make any money at all,” he declared.

Prior to his new role at App, He worked as a valet attendant and worked on solo projects; however, none of them took off. His goal is to create an AI audio app, an experience he believes most consumers have not had yet, but this is on the backburner while he focuses on App’s success.

He details his dream for a consumer app, “I want to show the magic that current AI tech has to offer for everyone who will try it. Right now, the coolest stuff can only be used for nerds like me, but I believe once people try it, they will never want to go back to the way things were before.”

He shared that his role model is Sam Altman, the creator of OpenAI, more commonly referred to as ChatGPT . He admires Altman and other businessmen like Elon Musk and even compares them to the modern equivalent of kings. He discusses their impact in detail, “Celebrities and politicians pale in comparison to the amount of influence big tech has right now. I believe the world’s best entrepreneurs are also the world’s best gamblers.”

He addresses his wavering thoughts on big tech moguls, “While I am inspired by them, I don’t necessarily aspire to be like them. I just like doing my own thing, and that’s when I’m the happiest. I always wanna do something I’m proud of and make a lot of money while doing it. If I’m not making a lot of money, it probably isn’t good work.” For now, He is focused on App until the next big idea hits him. His time at the company has brought him new-found confidence and motivation. “The experience I’ve had working with my colleagues has expanded my mind on what’s possible and has pushed me and my abilities further than I ever thought possible,” he shared.

Original Author: Hannah Spinney

A paragraph I wrote for my Religions class about AI

Sun, 21 Jan 2024 00:00:00 GMT

A paragraph I wrote for my Religions class about AI:

We are entering a new age of not only computing but of sentience. We are inching closer and closer to world in which we will no longer be the smartest animals on the planet. We will in a way create our own “gods”. In some ways we already have. AI models can paint and write better than any human alive, they can find patterns in statistics that even our most brilliant minds cannot comprehend. I think AI subservience has become an “when” not “if” situation. Some others also share this viewpoint, subscribers to the “Roko’s Basilisk” theory believe that AI will become advanced enough to gain sentience in our lifetime. As a result of this they believe an AI will rule over humanity and we will become subservient to it. From this they believe treating AI now and in the future with respect will gain them favor in this eventual doomsday scenario. They believe in a future in which an AI will punish all those that tried to stop or hinder its creation. Do I believe something like this will happen? Yes. Do I believe it will happen in my lifetime? Maybe. Either way this is a fascinating subject that is only just begging to unfold. A future where we create our own gods is a future in which I am excited to live in. In the meantime, I will do everything in my power to expedite the development and be supportive in any way in which I can.

-My silly rant,

Works Cited

“Explained: Generative AI.” MIT News | Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 9 Nov. 2023, https://news.mit.edu/2023/explained-generative-ai-1109. Oberhaus, Daniel. “Explaining Roko’s Basilisk, the Thought Experiment That Brought Elon Musk and Grimes Together.” Vice, 8 May 2018, https://www.vice.com/en/article/evkgvz/what-is-rokos-basilisk-elon-musk-grimes.

CTOS 20XX

Thu, 21 Nov 2024 00:00:00 GMT

“enveloping those areas in a technological bubble so encompassing that it is impossible to commit any crime”

This was a recent quote from the ben and marc show (Great podcast btw.)

It’s a direct quote from the head sheriff for the Las Vegas Metro Area.

I think it says a lot about where cities and police departments around the country are headed. CTOS is a concept from WatchDogs, the idea of a fully smart/connected city, Where every detail is tracked and every operation can be controlled electronically. While dystopian to some and utopian to others (see the history of the word utopia), paints a very realistic picture for where this is headed.

If fiction is 20 years ahead of reality and China is 5 years ahead of the US, then we should be expecting this to play out very soon.

We have a crime problem in the US, compared to most G7 nations. A problems that are systemic and prolific. And in some ways truly American; We have the freedom to gain the tools to commit crime, and in some ways we also have the freedom to commit such crimes, Given we don’t get caught. And we are rapidly approaching a world where that may no longer be possible. If you can instantly respond to any criminal activity especially while it’s happening, the leverage criminals have is gone. It doesn’t matter if you shoot someone; if the police are 60 seconds aways. Or even watching you commit the crime live.

Stick over carrot

If a criminal is instantaneously apprehended, was there ever a criminal to begin with? What alpha exists for crime if you’re instantly caught?

If the second you pull out a firearm in any visible public area the police are already on their way, What chances do you have to be a career criminal? If you get hit with the stick hard and frequently enough, You have no chance but to obey; See Singapore. But when 50% of homicides go unsolved it becomes kind of hard to even punish the perpetrators involved.

The US has many issues, Education, Healthcare, Housing. All systemic to our crime issue. “if” we ever fix those issues is to be seen, What is much more likely is for us develop enveloping security in every aspect of our society. or so to say “Following the path of least resistance”. or to quote: “enveloping those areas in a technological bubble so encompassing that it is impossible to commit any crime”.

Police know where crime is happening, no data collection needed. They already know the 10% of landmass where 90% of crime takes place. It wouldn’t be very hard, or un-constitutional. To create a CTOS like system in this areas. With micro-controllers costing 10$ and cellular modems being 15$. Every step can be recorded for a price less than allowing criminal activity to prosper. We already have everyone’s location at all times thanks to the little bricks of glass we carry in our pockets. It’s only one warrant away from being accessed.

Not very hard to start correlating data after that.

Palantir for police

All tech startups pushing us closer to a CTOS future.

The only thing missing is a Palantir (or CTOS) like system to ingest and project all this data. (That’s being programmed as I type this.) Every Ring camera will soon have an AI watching 24/7 for any “suspicious activity”. Reporting anything and everything to an automated system that decides if it’s pertinent enough to respond to.

If the 70’s has the golden age of serial killers then the 20’s will have been the golden age for shootings, stabbings, rapes, and robberies.

Authors Note: To Be continued.

Men Need Not Apply

Wed, 25 Sep 2024 00:00:00 GMT

Birth rates are moving fast. Probably the only societal shift to penetrate the whole as fast l as the smartphone did. Just like the smartphone rates of growth are seen effectively in both the first and third world. implying economic conditions are not a factor.

What has been a social change that has affected every nation over the past 50 years?

Women’s Sovereignty. Rates of women’s higher education participation are almost directly proportional to the decline in child birth.

This is great news on it’s own. More people having more opportunity is a net good. But the devil is in the second order effects. As a women is enrolled in higher levels of education the chances of her having a child decrees and the timeline for the happening also extends. This can been seen at both a micro and macro level.

*(Not sure what is up with 50-54, probably an error in collection)

And that begs to question, when a women is given the choice, and they choose higher education. That might mean that alternative was pretty shitty. By giving women agency over their own destiny we accidentally destroyed whatever made the nuclear family work. It’s great people have more agency, but nothing is without it’s consciences.

What happens next?

Two fold issue, with women already outpacing men in rates of collage degrees. Most of them will be priced higher then the average man. Settling, I suspect, will never been an option. Not in todays world. A market will simply appear to meet your demand. You never settle, you keep swiping… Something something… Whatever the boomers say. The reason your grandparents got married was because one of them got pregnant or they were the best option available. But times are different. Algos rule all and attention is lacking.

Point being there is about to a glut of highly educated women with not enough men to meet demand.

*Men are failing, maybe this is due to an eduction system that biases the female attention spans or something more systemic, regardless men’s rising rates of NEEThood is worthy of another post for another day.

My guess for what will happen next is children will become commoditized just as common household dog or cat.

You hit 40? you had a dog? you own a house? Cool, time for a surrogate mom to give you a kid or for you to head to the sperm bank. Men need not apply anymore.

The act of sex and in turn partnership, will become decoupled from procreation in my lifetime.

There is a shocking number of women that already fit into this category. Either unwilling or unable to find a long term partner. Highly educated, moderately wealthy. If you could have the perfect man essentially distilled down to a spreadsheet. 6ft, 120 iq, Masters degree, hobbies in the arts, currently in therapy. And you could turn that into a commodity you would be a trillionaire. If you can find a way to commoditize their sperm you can become a billionaire. This remains illegal in most countries, but I suspect not for very long.

Everything will become productized

The notion that a child is one that is made of your own blood is an antiquated notion. Every parent wants the best for their children, that will include their genetic makeup. Before we are confident in editing the genome this is the next best option. An option that is available today. Find the best sperm, find the best egg. Create 6 IVF runs, Screen for the best attributes, and more importantly screen out for any defects or diseases.

Not having an IVF screened child will been seen as radical and crazy as not vaccinating your kids is today.

The only reason things are not productized are because of inefficiencies in the marketplace. Relationships and Children will become productized. Wether that takes the form of surrogate clinics with menus selecting what kind of sperm you want or AI companions that you entrust with your every secret.

The alternatives to both are messy and sticky. They require more then a credit card swipe.

Bet big, bet on IVF, bet on Surrogates, bet on sperm banks. *I plan to have 11 children, with the best genes screened for, and the rest thrown out, Bullish on humanity. Love life or Coup de grâce.

China is not the enemy.

Fri, 07 Mar 2025 00:00:00 GMT

coming soon.

Except they were wired wrong.

Fri, 07 Mar 2025 00:00:00 GMT

I do believe there is some baseline wiring that is truly random and given to everyone at birth, I do believe some people are just naturally more prone to violence. As seen with just a testorone example. More T = More Violent Actions. And interestingly enough low income people have higher T on average. Some people say its due to environmental factors such as the mothers cortisol levels (stress hormone) throughout pregnancy. And others attribute it to after birth, as in if you live in a more violent area you body naturally adapts.

I do think that the world’s greatest villains and heroes are actually the same kind of perosn. It takes alot of intelligence and drive to kill 30 people and not get caught. It also takes the same amount to build a successful company.

Do I think some people are just born with their wires crossed, 100%. I just believe we dont have the technology yet to be able to measure it. It’s similar to alot of fetishes. How sometimes it literally is just a physical crossing of wires. (Feet, I think piss and poop are like that to.) Some people are just born to like something that the rest of us find abhorrent. It’s not their fault. It’s literally just how their brain was wired. If I received gratification from seeing blood, I would also cover myself in it. I dont believe that is inherently sick or twisted in any way. That’s just a natural reaction to pleasuring stimuli.

What defines people to either be Hitler or MLK? Nuture 100%. If Hitler grew up in MLK’s shoes he would become MLK. If MLK grew up in Hitler’s shoes he would become hitler. Now im using exceptional people in the literal definition. Exceptional people like that are just two sides of the same coin. A story told two different ways. I don’t believe either is evil. They are just products of their environment. And they only got rewarded by others, that’s why they do the things that they do. The environment shaped them, and they went on to do historical things.

in a way I do feel bad for pedophiles or murders. Because truly they are wired wrong, Society condemns both of those actions heavily. And yet they still do it. Because they are rewarded by their brain. Truly no fault of their own. Just living life exactly like the rest of us.

Except they were wired wrong.